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A networked approach to improving the resilience of communities confronted by the threat of Ebola

October 27, 2014 | Filed under: Africa, English, Epidemiology & Public Health, Guinea, Liberia, Peer reviewed, Sierra Leone and tagged with: community resilience, Nicholas Mellor, spread, The Lancet Global Health Journal, transmission

The current Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic shows no sign of abating, and, with little effective infection control or prevention in place, the transmission is escalating on an unprecedented scale. In the absence of effective infection prevention and control at community level, the current epidemic curve indicates that cases are likely to escalate further, and the disease could become endemic.

Country Basic reproduction number – from initial phase Estimated current reproduction number Current doubling times (days) Predicted cases by 2 November 2014
Guinea 1.71 1.81 15.7 5740
Liberia 1.83 1.51 23 9890
Sierra Leone 2.02 1.38 30 5000

These R0 figures from a recent modelling study show that the epidemic is still expanding, and, since these data is based on recorded patients and deaths, the true case load will be higher still.

 

Published on The Lancet Global Health Journal, by Nicholas Mellor, 21st Oct 2014.

Full article: http://globalhealth.thelancet.com/2014/10/21/networked-approach-improving-resilience-communities-confronted-threat-ebola

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