A networked approach to improving the resilience of communities confronted by the threat of Ebola

The current Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic shows no sign of abating, and, with little effective infection control or prevention in place, the transmission is escalating on an unprecedented scale. In the absence of effective infection prevention and control at community level, the current epidemic curve indicates that cases are likely to escalate further, and the disease could become endemic.

Country	Basic reproduction number – from initial phase	Estimated current reproduction number	Current doubling times (days)	Predicted cases by 2 November 2014
Guinea	1.71	1.81	15.7	5740
Liberia	1.83	1.51	23	9890
Sierra Leone	2.02	1.38	30	5000

These R0 figures from a recent modelling study show that the epidemic is still expanding, and, since these data is based on recorded patients and deaths, the true case load will be higher still.

Published on The Lancet Global Health Journal, by Nicholas Mellor, 21st Oct 2014.

Full article: http://globalhealth.thelancet.com/2014/10/21/networked-approach-improving-resilience-communities-confronted-threat-ebola