The current Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic shows no sign of abating, and, with little effective infection control or prevention in place, the transmission is escalating on an unprecedented scale. In the absence of effective infection prevention and control at community level, the current epidemic curve indicates that cases are likely to escalate further, and the disease could become endemic.
Country Basic reproduction number – from initial phase Estimated current reproduction number Current doubling times (days) Predicted cases by 2 November 2014 Guinea 1.71 1.81 15.7 5740 Liberia 1.83 1.51 23 9890 Sierra Leone 2.02 1.38 30 5000
These R0 figures from a recent modelling study show that the epidemic is still expanding, and, since these data is based on recorded patients and deaths, the true case load will be higher still.
Published on The Lancet Global Health Journal, by 21st Oct 2014.